Alexh1992's Blog

Sam Zorfas and Alex Haney

The purpose of this blog is to analyze and compare demographic data between countries and continents to formulate generalizations.

1. China and India have the largest populations in the world. Which of these two countries adds more people to its population annually? [Calculate the numbers added by applying the rate of natural increase to the population of each country. Hint: the rate is a percent]

Number of people added anually = Country’s population x Natural Rate of Increase

Table 1. Number of people added annually in China and India

Country	Number of people added annually
China	669,050,000
India	1,783,200,000

1. What proportion of the world’s people live the following continents/regions and what are the projected proportions by 2025 and 2050?

Chart 1. Distribution of people in the continents today, in 2025, and 2050

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Table 2. Percentage of World Population in each continent today, in 2025, and in 2050

% of people in each continent = (Continent Population / World Population) x 100

Continent	% living today	% by 2025	% by 2050
Asia	60,32	59,76	57,19
North America	4,99	4,82	5
Latin America	8,38	8,24	7,69
Europe	10,58	9,21	7,59
Oceania	0,54	0,56	0,61

Use the data above and Excel to construct a bar chart showing the regional distributions of the world’s population for the current year, 2025, and 2050. Save your graph.

What trends are reflected in the bar chart?

Asia is slowly decreasing but still has the biggest population. North America barely decreases in 2025, but then barely increases in 2050. Latin America decreases the whole time. Europe decreases the whole at the quickest rate. Oceania is slowly increasing in 2025 and 2050.

1. What proportion of the world’s people live in less developed countries (LDCs) and in more developed countries (MDCs) today? What proportion is projected to live in LDCs  and MDCs in 2025 and in 2050?

Table 3. Percentage of World Population in Less Developed Countries and More Developed Countries today, in 2025, and in 2050

% of people in LDCs/MDCs = (Population in LDCs or MDCs / Total World Population) x 100

Countries	% of world’s population today	% of world’s population in 2025	% of world’s population in 2050
LDCs	82.06%	84.1%	86.02%
MDCs	17.94%	15.91%	13.98%

Discuss with your partner a) the economic and b) the social implications of the changing proportions of the world’s people in LDCs and MDCs. Record your observations.

The LDCs percentages are increasing as the MDCs populations are decreasing. This isn’t because MDCs populations are decreasing, it is because of the exponential growth of the LDCs population. Economically and socially this is extremely damaging to the LDCs because they already have little resources and a growing population will only make them go away faster. Socially, the growing populations is  just going to create diseases and tension between the people for food and water.

The MDCs populations may seem to be decreasing, but it is increasing, just at a slower rate than LDCs. This is going to be a problem economically because MDCs tend to use up resources at a faster rate than LDCs. So as the population increases, the more important resources such as coal, oil etc. at a quicker rate. Socially, because the countries are more developed, there are more educated people who are more conscious about how many kids they have. There is family planning involved.

1. Examine the crude birth rate, crude death rate, and rate of natural increase of any three countries (one being your own country) listed on the World Population Data Sheet.

Table 4. Crude birth rate, Crude death rate, and rate of natural increase in USA, Greece, and Israel

Crude birth rate = (Births per 1,000 people / 1,000) x 100

Crude death rate = (Deaths per 1,000 people / 1,000) x 100

Rate of natural increase = Crude birth rate – Crude death rate

Country	Crude birth rate (%)	Crude death rate (%)	Rate of natural increase (%)
USA	1.4%	0.8%	0.6%
Greece	1.1%	1.0%	0.1%
Israel	2.2%	0.5%	1.6%

Discuss with your group partner the mathematical relationship among these three rates. Record your observations.

To find the rate of natural increase, we found the crude birth rates of each country. Then we found the crude death rates of each country. Next, we subtracted the crude death rate for each country from the crude birth rate. Therefore, the difference between these two numbers is the natural rate of increase. Here, in the chart are the numbers for USA, Greece, and Israel.

The age-dependency ratio is the ratio of persons in the “dependent” ages (under 15 and over 64 years) to those in the “economically productive” ages (15-64 years) in a population. The age-dependency ratio is often used as an indicator of the economic burden the productive portion of a population must carry—even though some persons defined as “dependent” are producers and some persons in the “productive” age range are economically dependent.

The formula for this ratio:

% of population under age 15 +  % of 65 and over	X 100
% of population ages 15-64

[Hint: The three percents will equal 100%. ]

The age-dependency ratio in the United States in 2004 was:

21% + 12%	X  100
67%

This means that there were 49 people in the dependent ages for every 100 people of working age.

1. Select 2 LDCs and 2 MDCs from the data sheet and compute the age-dependency ratios for each.

Table 5. Age-dependency ratios in Ghana, Gambia, Ireland, and Germany

Country	Age-dependency ratio
LCD1 GHANA	(39%+4%)/(53%) x 100 = 81 people of every 100 are working age
LCD2 GAMBIA	(43%+3%)/(54%) x 100 = 85 people of every 100 are working age
MDC1 IRELAND	(21%+11%)/(68%) x 100 = 47 people of every 100 are working age
MCD2 GERMANY	(14%+20%)/(66%) x 100 = 52 people of every 100 are working age

Discuss with your partner the implications of your observations:

We decided to determine the age-dependency ratios for two LDC’s (Ghana and Gambia) and two MDC’s (Ireland and Germany). We first found the percent of population ages <15 and added it to the percent of population ages +65. Then we subtracted this from 100. This difference would be the percent of population ages 15-65. Next we would take the sum of the percent of population ages <15 and percent of population ages +65 and divide it by the percent of population ages 15-65.

Lastly, we would multiply this number by 100. This number would be a number out of 100 that are age-dependent.

• What factors do you think contribute to a high age-dependency ratio?

Factors such as high population density and resource availability contribute to high age-dependency. If there are more people leaving in an area, than there is a higher demand for resources. A higher demand for resources can create and imbalance of distribution of money between the rich and the poor. If money is only available to a small group of people, than there is a large part of the population that is poor. Consequently, a large part of the population is age-dependent.

• What are some economic and social consequences of a high age-dependency ratio?

If a country has a high age-dependency ratio, many social and economic issues can arise. A large poor, dependent population can be a burden upon society. This can create tension between the dependent and independent populations because one group is highly dependent on the other to support them. Taxes can be an economic and social consequence because a small group of independent people is responsible for compensating for large part of the society that is age-dependent. Taxes can be a social consequence because the dependent individuals can be treated as social pariahs because they cannot support themselves.

Part B.  Interpreting Age-Sex Graphs

Introduction

What Is an Age-Sex Graph?

An age-sex graph, commonly referred to as a population pyramid even though the graph for some countries is not actually a pyramid shape, displays a population’s age and sex composition. Horizontal bars represent the numbers or proportions of males and females in each age group, or cohort. The sum of all the age-sex cohorts in the population pyramid equals 100 percent of the population. Cohorts may vary from single years to groups of years.

Fig. 1. Example of age-sex graph with five-year cohord.

The left side of the pyramid represents the male population and the right side, the female population. The bars at the bottom of the pyramid represent the percent of the population that is male, 0-4 years old (left) and the percent of the population that is female, 0-4 years old (right). Each bar above the base represents the next five-year cohort, male and female, in the population. As cohorts age, they inevitably lose members because of death and they may gain or lose members because of migration. After age 45 the loss of population accelerates, causing the narrowing peak of all population pyramids.

Population pyramids reveal a great deal about a population at a glance. Populations of countries can differ markedly as a result of past and current patterns of fertility, mortality, and migration.

Chart 2. Male and Female age distribution in Israel

Table 6. Demographic Indicators in Israel

Demographic Indicators	Value
Total midyear population	7,354,000
Birth Rate (per 1,000)	20
Death Rate (per 1,000)	5
Natural Increase (%)	1.6%
Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 births)	4
Total Fertility Rate	2.7%
Total Fertility Rate	2.7%
Life Expectancy at Birth for males	78.78
Life Expectancy at Birth for females	83.12
Population <15 yrs. (%) / >65 yrs. (%) (from World Population Data Sheet)	28% < 15  10% >65
GNP/capita (US $)  (from World Population Data Sheet)	$27,450

Table 2. Demographic indicators for one of the countries selected.

Select “Population Pyramids” from the menu at the top of the web page.

You have constructed an age-sex pyramid. Copy and paste this pyramid below:

Chart 3. Male and Female age distribution in Thailand

Collect the demographic indicators for the second country selected.

Table 7.  Demographic Indicators in Thailand

Demographic Indicators	Value
Total midyear population	67,090,000
Birth Rate (per 1,000)	13.01
Death Rate (per 1,000)	6.47
Natural Increase (%)	0.65%
Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000 births)	17
Total Fertility Rate	1.6%
Total Fertility Rate	1.6%
Life Expectancy at Birth for males	72.94
Life Expectancy at Birth for females	77.21
Population <15 yrs. (%) / >65 yrs. (%) (from World Population Data Sheet)	22%<15  7%>65
GNP/capita (US $)  (from World Population Data Sheet)	$5,990

Table 23. Demographic indicators for the second country selected.

Select “Population Pyramids” from the menu at the top of the web page.

You have constructed an age-sex pyramid. Copy and paste this pyramid below:

Compare the demographic indicators from the two countries. What generalizations can be made concerning demographic indicators and level of development? [for example, if the birth rate is high, then the level of development is...]. Form at least two generalizations that are supported by the pyramids and data charts.

From these demographic indicators, it is clear that Israel is a more developed country than Thailand. The births per 1,000 people in Israel is 20, while Thailand’s is 13.01. Thailand has a deaths per 1,000 people is 6.47 while Israel is only at 5 per 1,000 people. This gives Israel a higher natural rate of increase. Usually, less developed countries grow quicker than more developed countries, though according to Molles (2010), “most developing countries are growing” (p. 259). Israel being a Jewish State, it is tradition for Jewish families to have larger families. The GNP/capita in $ is $5,990 while Israel is at $27,450 which is a reason why life expectancy is at 78 for males and 83 for females in Israel while Thailand is only at 72 for males at 77 for females. More money means better lifestyle and access to more health care benefits. Israel’s infant mortality rate per 1,000 births is 4 while Thailand is at a higher 17. When comparing a more developed country to a less developed country, these are typical results.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

1. (e.g. U.S. Census Bureau “International Database,” available at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/ and World Population Data Sheet for 2010 (http://www.prb.org/pdf10/10wpds_eng.pd)

2. Molles, M.C. (2010). Ecology. Concepts and Applications. 5th Ed. NY: McGraw-Hill.